February 4, 2010
Dem Lt Gov candidate Scott Lee Cohen
They were worried before – but now they should be actively concerned, and yet they’re stuck. Alexi Giannoulias, barry’s basketball bud was not one of barry’s choices on “the list” that was transmitted to Blago via Blago’s good buddy Rahm Emanuel. Instead it was Dan Hynes, who opposed Pat Quinn for governor (and barely lost), Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Valerie Jarrett, Tammy Duckworth and Rep Jan Schakowsky. So it’s clear the WH had their own doubts in Nov 2008.
Who did barry endorse for his own senate seat?
No one.
Did the press ask why?
No.
Sen Scott Brown’s election begged the question why Ted Kennedy, when he knew he would no longer physically be able to be present in the Senate, did not actively get involved in seeking a successor. Inevitability never works as a political strategy and folks who don’t believe Rep Mark Kirk can be elected to barry’s seat must be living outside Illinois.
barry’s people will not be able to go after Kirk on very many issues. barry hater and delusional senatorial Republican candidate Andy Martin questioned Kirk’s sexuality and was thrown out of the Republican party. Kirk just returned from his second tour in Afghanistan and he is vehemently opposed to bringing Gitmo people to Thomson – something shared by the majority of state residents. Should, God forbid, another terrorist attack take place on our soil, Kirk’s win will virtually be sealed.
But, as most folks do not know, Arab American money runs Illinois politics and before he was convicted, Syrian-born TONY REZKO (barry’s decades long friend) was the main man. The largest population of Palestinian Americans in the US live in the Chicagoland area and the most radical mosque in the US run by the Muslim Brotherhood (parent to Hamas and al Qaeda) is in Bridgeview (Bridgeview Mosque). That money may well mean the difference in the race and one doesn’t have to point out how much they have invested in barry. In addition to the fact that Kirk said some “inartful” but proven correct statements about profiling young Arab males back in 2005.
So it depends on how much the RNC is truly aware of Illinois politics – no Republicans hold statewide office at present – and whether they realize how much the loss of barry’s seat, like Ted Kennedy’s, would mean on the national scene. If Kirk goes up in the polls early, it would have a cascade effect in neighboring states, especially Indiana.
Recall also that Rod Blagojevich’s trial will start in June, which will reveal the dirty trail all the way to the White House – see list of Dems personally involved in alleged seat sale. TONY REZKO, barry’s chief fundraiser in all his elections except for the presidential (because he was on trial and then in jail) will take center stage. Blago’s lawyers will make sure Rezko’s connections to barry are pointed out because barry said he and his people had no improper interaction with Blago and the (one can only hope) no longer infatuated barrymedia might just look into the matter to save their own reputations. Not holding my breath. But the blogsphere will light up again and for Kirk that might just be enough.
Most definitely, the Giannoulias family bank, Broadway Bank’s connections to REZKO and Blago will be revealed in detail – if not in trial – by the papers covering it. It snuck in only at the end of the primaries. The Republicans would be wise to hammer away at that early and often. Odds are, if they look close enough, there will be something that ties barry to them as well.
Although convicted, REZKO is still awaiting sentencing. Contrary to some stories, Rezko is not “willingly” in jail. His bond was revoked before the trial began and his sentencing was delayed “indefinitely” once he decided to cooperate with the Feds. Meaning his level of cooperation will determine his sentence. But in the background, Rezko still has outstanding charges in Las Vegas stemming from $450K in bad checks. Checks that were written on his Broadway Bank account. No way that is going to disappear before the general election.
Anger is anger, and there is no doubt to everyone outside Washington, barrymedia and the WH, that Americans are angry. Massachusetts proved that even if barry hasn’t taken heed. Banks and Wall Street are pissing folks off bigtime – and rightfully so – which means Giannoulias’ mismanagement of Bright Start with Oppenheimer funds and his family’s bank are going to be major targets. Granted he was able to save 600 jobs at Hartmarx in Des Plaines – well publicized through barry – they made his election night and inauguration suits/tux – but that will be offset by the 11.1% unemployment rate with 51,925 jobs and the 709 firms lost in Illinois in 2009, as well as the $12.8B budget deficit.
How many fundraisers will barry be attending over the summer when Blago’s trial is ongoing? barry is going to be anywhere but Chicago. Giannoulias is going to be on his own and if you’ve ever seen him speak – it’s clear he is going to have trouble – especially in a debate against Rep Kirk. During his victory speech, Giannoulias (33) looked like a spolied frat boy thanking his buds, his suit ill-fitting and the collar of his shirt too big for his neck.
You can be sure there will be plenty of pix of Rep Kirk in uniform – as there should be. Not since WWII has an active member of Congress being deployed to an area of active combat as a Reservist. Giannoulias cannot touch the wars because of his opponent and because he has never served in the military.
Giannoulias in post victory interview with NBC:
Come November, Congressman, your days as a Washington insider are over.
He’s going to portay himself just like barry and how hollow is that going to sound – especially when Rep Kirk actually has legislative experience and achievements? And it sounded so lame coming out of his mouth since he hasn’t even been around long enough to understand Chicago politics. His work history = his family’s bank + State Treasurer. Folks soured pretty quickly over barry because he has no experience – sending someone from Illinois with no experience when IL residents really need someone who knows what they’re doing is not going to be easy – even if he’s a Democrat. That’s why IL residents weren’t that upset about Mr Burris’ appointment – he at least knew what to do when he got to the senate, however he got there. Had Blago appointed Giannoulias – or any whitey – the outrage would have been overwhelming, which of course, Blago knew.
Low voter turnout in general may mean folks overall aren’t that angry – good for Republicans. It also may mean Democrats weren’t fired up like they were for barry. Independents have probably had it banking on an unknown and fed up Dems want somebody who can get something done and Reps are never going to vote for a friend of barry’s.
By the time the election comes around, folks are going to care about jobs – their own livelihoods – not barry’s or “Washington” as he likes to say and Republicans are the ones energized not democrats. They all put their own reputations on the line for barry and barry did not come through – they’re not going to do it again. Unless something happens to Kirk, or something comes out that hasn’t come out in his other 5 races, he should be moving on up to the Senate.
Bottom line: Alexi is on his own.
Reality: the WH didn’t think he could win a year ago and he’s done nothing in the interim to increase his chances and the WH has increased the chances of his loss.
Outcome: will hinge on how aggressive the RNC decides to be, national security, jobs, budget deficits, Giannoulias’ ability to speak publicly and withstand the family attacks.
Unknown: what will be revealed in blago’s trial – about all the Dems involved – local, state and national, including Giannoulias and the WH.
Thought for the day: What better indictment of barry than the loss of his own senate seat and that of the man whose endorsement got him into the White House?
Primary results:
GIANNOULIAS 38.9
DAVID HOFFMAN 33.8
CHERYLE JACKSON 19.7
ROBERT MARSHALL 5.7
JACOB MEISTER 1.8
Most notably – JESSE JACKSON JR – did not run
I live in Chicago and I can’t tell you who Hoffman, Marshall or Meister are and yet they got 25.4% of the Democrat vote.
Dem voters outnumbered Rep (900K – 740K) but Kirk’s vote count (419,149) outnumbered Giannoulias (351,120). barry’s winnning tally was 655,923 and Ryan’s 234,791. Still 43% of Republicans did not vote for Kirk.
Kirk is not far behind on cash on hand ($2,213,890) vs Giannoulias ($2,429,549).
Add also that Kirk has run for a national office 5xs and won – Giannoulias just statewide and just once. And behind the scenes Giannoulias will have WH help but not publicly and Rep Kirk will have the power of the RNC behind him.
Other things in his favor:
Youthful 50 vs spoiled fratboy 33
His divorce was finalized during his primary campaign (July 2009).
They had no children and reportedly (unlike Jack & Jerri Ryan) they remain friends.
Andy Martin’s attack ad questioning Kirk’s sexuality was met with laughter.
He is one of only two in the Congress in the Reserves.
Has won his seat five times in a row in a Democratic district.
Is pro-choice and opposes federal funding of abortion.
He speaks fluent Spanish, having gone to school in Mexico.
Spanish-speaking Illinoians far outnumber Greek-speaking ones
Proven fundraiser
Outspoken against China, Iran, and has picked apart barry’s estimate of the uninsured.
About as much a centrist as a Republican can get.
And the best part of the primaries?
Blago’s kooky old auntie, Judy Baar Topinka, crawled out of the attic to join the race for IL Comptroller.